증권사 보고서로 본 블록체인, 비트코인

1.
지난 주 가상통화시장을 둘러싼 재미있는 사건이 있었습니다. 첫째는 중국의 규제입니다. ICO를 금지한 중국 정부가 가상통화거래소의 온라인 서비스를 중지시켰습니다.

중국, 가상화폐 거래소 첫 폐쇄… 비트코인 가격 40% 폭락
China Bitcoin Exchange to Stop Trading Virtual Currencies Amid Crackdown

비트코인의 원장인 블록체인의 특성상 강제적으로 발행이나 거래를 중단시킬 수 없습니다. 그래서 온라인거래를 중지시키는 방향을 선택한 듯 합니다. 2017년 4월 외부로 유출된 중국당국의 가이드라인인 Rectification Guidelines for Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges 과 이어지는 정책들입니다.

Article 1 Scope of application
This guideline applies to all bitcoin trading platforms that are found across the country.


Article 2 Objectives
The purpose is to crack down and abolish illegal financial operations on Bitcoin exchanges, to maintain the order of Bitcoin market, to prevent financial risks and to protect investors’ interests.


Article 3 Legal basis
According to the Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the Special Rectification Plan for Internet Financial Risks (No. 21 of [2016]), the Notice on the special rectification and implementation of the Internet financial risk issued by the People’s Bank of China and other 17 ministries (No. 281 of PBOC [2016]), rectification work is conducted on Bitcoin exchanges.


Article 4 Working mechanism
The local regulation office is to take the lead to implement the rectification work, together with the local branch of the People’s Bank. If necessary, other financial regulators or government departments are required to support.


Article 5 Work flow
Guidance counseling with the person in charge to carry out on-site inspection put forward rectification proposals to report rectification progress regularly


Article 6 The focus of guidance counseling

1. Not to allow fiat loaning and Bitcoin loaning;
2. Transaction fee must not be zero;
3. No engagement in money laundry.
4. No violation of the relevant regulatory requirements on foreign exchange management;
5. Not to engage in illegal payment business;
6. No more business operation beyond the scope stated on the business license;
7. Not to violate industrial and commercial advertising and other laws and regulations;
8. Not to violate laws and regulations of national securities and futures.


Article 7 Inspection items
1. The basic information of the platform
Including registered capital, operating entity, shareholder structure, related business qualifications.
2. Operation of the platform
The following information shall be submitted: the amount of deposit and withdrawal from 2016 to present date of 2017, the amount and quantity of transactions, rates and fees and Bitcoin trading model.
3. Whether the exchange violates the relevant provisions of exchange platform
Whether the order book is matched electronically, the use of standardized contracts, centralized auction or continuous auction, equal split of equities.
Legal documents: “State Council on the rectification of various types of trading platforms to effectively prevent financial risks ” ([2011] No. 38), “the General Office of the State Council on the rectification of various types of trading venues” ([2012] No.37) and so on.
4.Whether the exchange engaged in illegal financial business
Whether to carry out credit loaning or disguised loaning (with the business), futures, payment, exchange and other business without authorization.
Legal documents: Guidelines on abolishing illegal financial institutions and illegal financial business operations ([1998] No. 247), the Act of Futures Transactions, the Guidelines for Non-financial Institutions engagement in payment service, the Act of Foreign Exchange Management.
5.The implementation of the anti-money laundering system
Including: the integrity of anti-money laundering system, the establishment of customer identity information and transaction record storage system and the establishment of large-amount transactions and suspicious transaction reporting system.
Legal documents: “Anti-Money Laundering Law of the People’s Republic of China”.
6. Customer funds management
Including: the balance of customer funds, the use of funds and the establishment of third-party custody system.
Legal documents: “The guidance on the promotion of the healthy development of Internet financial guidance”, which is issued by the People’s Bank and other 10 ministries ([2015] No. 221) and so on.
7. Other items that need to be checked.


Article 8 Rectification proposals
Depends on the actual inspection results, rectification proposals include but not limited to: stop fiat loaning and Bitcoin loaning business, charge transaction fees, suspend bitcoin withdrawal service, establish a sound anti-money laundering system and conduct business in line with legal requirements.


Article 9 Rectification progress report
The rectification report includes but not limited to: the basic situation of the trading platform, issues found in the preliminary investigation, issues to be further identified, action plan for future rectification, rectification summary of exchanges within jurisdiction ( form attached).


Article 10 Guidance of public opinion
Proper guidance of public opinions must be handled during the process of rectification. Opinions could be released through the official website, media interviews, expert interpretation and other means. Initiatives shall be taken to release regulatory signals and guide the community expectations.

둘째는 미국 JP Morgan 회장의 발언입니다. JP모건 CEO “비트코인은 사기…거품 터질 것”와 같은 기사들이 전한 발언입니다. 비트코인을 거품을 상징하는 튤립으로 묘사했습니다.

It’s worse than tulip bulbs. It won’t end well. Someone is going to get killed

직접적인 연관성은 알 수 없지만 비트코인이 300%이상 폭등하는 동안 JP Morgan의 트레이딩수익은 계속 하락세를 보였습니다.

Earlier on Tuesday, Dimon warned about further declines in trading revenue for the banking giant.Dimon said third-quarter trading revenue will drop about 20 percent on a year-over-year basis. Dimon also said the bank may not give intra-quarter guidance in the future.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says bitcoin is a ‘fraud’ that will eventually blow up중에서

이상의 사건으로 비트코인의 가격은 영향을 받았습니다. 물론 앞으로 이런 일을 수십, 수백번 반복될 듯 합니다. 미국 월스트리트의 주류가 비트코인을 비판적으로 바라보지만 핀테크 열풍과 함께 등장한 기업들은 다른 태도를 보이는 듯 합니다. VisualCapitalist가 소셜트레이딩으로 유명한 eToro가 펴낸 가상통화보고서입니다.

Comparing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Other Cryptos

2.
해외만 가상통화에 관심을 갖는 것은 아닙니다. 한국의 여의도도 다르지 않습니다. 먼저 암호통화와 관련한 보고서를 꾸준히 낸 최창규위원의 ‘가상화폐 가격은 어떻게 결정될까?’입니다. 사실 공동 보고서입니다. 가격을 예측하는 보고서가 아니라 암호통화시장을 설명하는 자료입니다. 비트코인거래소가 내놓은 자료보다 훨씬 훌륭합니다.

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다음은 블록체인입문을 위한 보고서입니다. 암호통화의 원장이지만 독자적인 발전을 거듭하고 있는 블록체인을 이해하는데 도움을 주는 보고서입니다. 교보증권 임동민 위원입니다. 생소한 분이지만 잘 정리하셨습니다.

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3.
KRX시장이 여러가지 이유로 규제에 묶여있는 가운데 증권사들은 규제가 없는 해외파생시장으로 눈을 둘려 재미를 많이 보고 있습니다. 예상이 맞다면 해외파생시장으로 돌았던 자금이 국내 암호통화시장으로 옮겨간 듯 합니다. 만약 증권사가 암호통화시장에 진출할 수 있다면 이보다 더 좋은 먹잇감은 없을 듯 합니다. 규제의 사각지대에 놓인 적이 있었던 ELW시장 이상으로 매력적입니다. 이유는 금융상품이 아니기때문에 금융관련법에 의한 법적 책임을 지지않습니다. 책임은 적고 수익은 무한대입니다. 그래서 금융회사들의 진출은 규제되어야 합니다. 암호통화산업이 금융산업으로 법제화하기 전까지는!