긴 글이지만 인용을 할까 합니다.결론은 이렇습니다.

“the independent securities firm model is
fundamentally flawed” and that every securities firm will
need to combine with a bank to gain a deposit base and greater
access to loans from the Federal Reserve.”

즉,IB모델은 파산했고 상업은행과 결합한 모델을 추구하여야 한다는 뜻입니다.

리먼의 파산, 메릴린치 매각이라는 충격에 쌓인 투자자들은 유사한 사업을 하고 있는 다른 투자은행들을 특히 심하게 검열하고 있다.
이미 지난 3월 베어스턴스가 JP모간에 팔린 것을 경험했다. 투자은행들은 신용경색으로 자금조달 창구가 막혀 유동성이 고갈되고
있다. 막대하게 보유하고 있는 모기지 자산도 문제다.

루비니 교수는 “메릴린치가 심각한 문제에 직면해 매각됐는데, 이 문제는 모간스탠리나 골드만삭스로 번질 가능성이 있다”고 구체적으로 거명했다. 브로커와 딜러로 구성된 투자은행들의 근본 모델이 실패했다는 것이다.

리먼 파산-메릴 매각, 다음은 누구?

국내의 경우 증권사중심의 IB전략을 대신하여 상업은행과 증권사의 IB업무가 결합한 Comercial Investment Bank전략이 중심에 서지 않을까 합니다.

Tectonic' Market Shift as Lehman Fails, Merrill Sold (Update1)


By Christine Harper

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- In the biggest reshaping of the
financial industry since the Great Depression, two of Wall
Street's most storied firms, Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc., headed toward extinction.

New York-based Lehman, founded 158 years ago, said early
today that it filed for bankruptcy protection after failing to
find a buyer. Merrill Lynch, 94 years old and also based in New
York, agreed to sell itself to Bank of America Corp. for $50
billion in an emergency deal hashed out yesterday.

The tectonic plates beneath the world financial system
are shifting, and there is going to be a new financial world
order that will be born of this,'' said Peter Kenny, managing
director at Knight Capital Group Inc., the Jersey City, New
Jersey-based brokerage that handles about $1 trillion worth of
stock transactions a quarter. It's an ugly and painful
process.''

The engines that powered record growth in the financial
industry over the past decade -- cheap credit and surging
property values -- have been thrust into reverse. Companies that
once thrived on making real estate loans and holding assets
bought with borrowed money are now under siege, giving the upper
hand to those less reliant on leverage and holding the fewest
assets tied to property.

Bear, Fannie, Freddie

The industry convulsions that started last year have
already eliminated Bear Stearns Cos., forced into a cut-price
sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co. with government support in March. A
week ago, the U.S. Treasury placed mortgage companies Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac into conservatorship, guaranteeing their widely
held debt securities while all but erasing their equity value.

American International Group Inc., once the world's largest
insurer, is struggling to raise cash to avoid a credit-rating
downgrade that could cripple its business. AIG shares fell as
much as 52 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading
today and were down $5.49, or 45 percent, to $6.65 at 10:50 a.m.

The five New York-based securities firms that dominated
Wall Street have been reduced to two: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
and Morgan Stanley. While both firms are scheduled to report a
drop in third-quarter earnings this year, their business has
remained profitable throughout 2008 -- unlike Lehman and
Merrill. As concerns swirled about their futures, Goldman's
stock dropped as much as 7.9 percent and Morgan Stanley's fell
as much as 13 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite
trading today.

Ride This Out’

I think highly of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, so I
expect them to ride this out,” Evercore Partners Inc. Chief
Executive Officer Roger Altman, a former deputy Treasury
secretary who spent his early career at Lehman, said in an
interview on CNBC. But as to whether we’ve seen the last of
this crisis, I think the answer to that is clearly no. And
exactly where it goes from here and how it unfolds, I’m
unsure.”

Lehman, which employed 25,935 people at the end of August
in 61 offices around the world, had a balance sheet totaling
$786 billion as recently as February. Merrill Lynch, with 60,000
employees, is known for its thundering herd” of financial
advisers that brought Wall Street financial products to Main
Street investors.

Vaporized'

I've been on Wall Street for many years, and I've never
seen a weekend like this one,'' said Michael Holland, 64,
chairman and founder of New York-based Holland & Co. We are
unwinding what has been years of silliness in the financial
markets, and the silliness is being vaporized as we speak,
unfortunately with the stock price of a number of companies
involved in it.''

To help cushion the fallout, 10 banks created a $70 billion
fund to lend to firms that are having trouble financing their
assets in the markets. The Federal Reserve also said it will be
willing to lend money in return for a wider array of collateral
including stocks.

Still, the repercussions may be widespread.

Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., wrote in
a note to investors that sales of Lehman's assets will push down
the value of securities, forcing other firms to write down their
own holdings.

Fundamentally Flawed’

Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York
University, said the independent securities firm model is
fundamentally flawed” and that every securities firm will
need to combine with a bank to gain a deposit base and greater
access to loans from the Federal Reserve.

Just five months ago, Lehman Brothers Chief Executive
Officer Richard Fuld, 62, was telling shareholders that the
worst is behind us” in the credit contraction. As concerns
escalated about the value of Lehman’s assets tied to residential
and commercial real estate, Fuld replaced Chief Financial
Officer Erin Callan and President Joseph Gregory in June.

Deteriorating markets put more pressure on the value of
Lehman’s assets and the firm, unable to negotiate an investment
from the Korea Development Bank, instead tried to reassure
investors last week by revealing third-quarter results early and
unveiling a plan to sell part of its fund management unit and
create a separate unit for its real estate holdings.

Fuld’s efforts were undermined on Sept. 10, when Moody’s
Investors Service put Lehman’s credit rating on review for
downgrade, noting that the firm needed a strategic transaction
with a stronger financial partner” to help support its rating.

Stock Tumbles

Lehman’s stock fell 50 percent on Thursday, Sept. 11 and
Friday, Sept. 12 and the collapse spread to Merrill, which has
reported four consecutive quarters of losses and is expected to
lose money again this quarter.

New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner called
a meeting of Wall Street’s top firms starting at the Fed’s
downtown headquarters that began at 6 p.m. on Friday, with a
goal of helping ease a sale of Lehman, according to people
familiar with the situation.

The two banks most interested in Lehman, London-based
Barclays Plc and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of
America, balked at a deal unless the government would protect it
from any losses on some of the hardest-to-value assets. The
government, already shaken by criticism of its actions to
support Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, refused to
budge and tried to persuade the CEOs of the biggest Wall Street
firms to pitch in instead.

Weekend Discussions

The talks lasted through the weekend, with groups of
executives breaking off into smaller groups to discuss options
and teams of traders examining positions at every major firm.
Yesterday, Barclays, the U.K.’s third-biggest bank, dropped out,
deciding it couldn’t agree on a deal so quickly without some
type of protection from losses.

As hopes dimmed for salvaging Lehman, attention turned to
the future of Merrill, Lehman’s bigger rival. That business,
with its 16,690 financial advisers and almost half of fund
manager BlackRock Inc., was more attractive to Bank of America
than Lehman could be. Merrill CEO John Thain, persuaded by the
weekend’s events that a deal was necessary to avoid a loss of
confidence and a fate similar to Lehman’s, entered into
negotiations with Bank of America’s Ken Lewis.

The liquidation of Lehman, last year’s top underwriter of
bonds backed by mortgages, is an amplified version of investment
bank Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc., which filed for bankruptcy in
1990. Drexel made its name financing corporate takeovers in the
1980s using junk bonds pushed by Michael Milken.

Keeping the Talent

Maintaining the confidence of the markets is only one of
the challenges for an investment bank — the other is retaining
employees, recalled Fred Joseph, Drexel’s CEO from 1985 to 1990.

It’s an awfully good business, but the assets go down in
the elevator every night,” said Joseph, 71. Despite the tough
times, the Street’s so small, everybody wants the really good
guys.”

A key difference with Drexel is Lehman’s central role in
the over-the-counter derivatives markets, which have ballooned
to $454 trillion since Drexel was in business. A default by
Lehman on its obligations in that market could cause chain
reactions throughout the markets that have never before seen a
major financial counterparty fail to honor its obligations.

The implications of one of the too big to fail'
institutions being allowed to fail is incredibly difficult to
grasp, but suffice to say that a huge number of firms and
securities are going to get affected,'' said Michael Auyeung,
who manages about $500 million as chief executive officer at
Pacific Mutual Fund Bhd. in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. The
reach of the carnage will be global and system-wide.''

Lehman's collapse wipes out a company that had a market
value of $45.5 billion in February 2007. Merrill's sale to Bank
of America for $29 a share, while about a 70 percent premium to
Merrill's value on Friday, compares with the company's $86
billion market capitalization in January 2007.

It's breathtaking that we've gone from five standalone
firms to two very quickly,'' said Roy Smith, a finance professor
at New York University's Stern School of Business and a former
partner at Goldman Sachs. `It’s certainly going to cause Wall
Street to rethink the strategy.”

To contact the reporter on this story:
Christine Harper in New York at
charper@bloomberg.net.