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아침 기사를 보던 중 눈에 들어온 제목.
JP모건 “코로나19 팬데믹, 4월이면 사실상 끝날 것”
기사의 출처는 The Pandemic Could Be ‘Effectively’ Over by April, According to J.P. Morgan입니다. 그런데 번역 기사와 원문 기사를 비교해보니까 다른 점이 눈에 들어옵니다. 이 기사에서 주목한 부분은 팬데믹의 종료가 아니라 이후에 벌어질 상황에 대한 분석입니다. 간단히 말하면 상품 가격이 오를 것이니 저가매수로 기회를 잡아라!”로 이야기할 수 있습니다. JP Morgan의 보고서를 찾을 수 없어서 기사중 일부를 인용하면..
The pandemic’s economic damage will likely long outlast the end of rapid community spread. But, unsurprisingly, the J.P. Morgan analysts’ calculations have them bullish on the companies and assets most sensitive to a post-pandemic recovery. They advise using any near-term pessimism as an opportunity to buy the dip.
“Any weakness in reflation and cyclical assets should be used as an opportunity to increase exposure to the reopening theme, in our view,” Kolanovic wrote.
The market, however, isn’t pricing in an end to the pandemic that soon. If consensus expectations come around to J.P. Morgan’s view, expect stocks in sectors like energy and financials to shoot higher. Commodity prices would continue to climb, as forecasted demand would increase. Treasuries would sell off, and rates would jump—which could be problematic for high-multiple growth and technology stocks.
위 기사와 관련한 또다른 글을 찾아보니까 ‘Commodity Super Cycle’이 등장합니다. 앞서 기사에 등장한 JP MOrgan의 애널리스트인 Marko Kolanovic이 등장합니다. 이와 관련한 국내 기사입니다.
주요국 정부가 추진하는 친환경 정책도 원자재 가격 상승을 부추기고 있다. 크리스 미드젤리 S&P 글로벌 수석애널리스트는 “친환경 인프라 조성을 위한 수요 증가로 구리와 니켈, 코발트 가격이 계속 오를 것”이라고 내다봤다. 마크 루이스 BNP파리바자산운용 지속가능전략부문 수석애널리스트는 “지난 30년간 이 시장을 지켜봐왔지만 이런 열기를 보지 못했다”며 “향후 30년간 친환경 전환을 위한 모든 분야 투자에 슈퍼 사이클이 예상된다”고 말했다
골드만삭스도 2000년대 초반부터 10년간 이어졌던 원자재 랠리가 다시 돌아왔다며 ‘슈퍼 사이클’에 진입했다는 주장을 내놨다. 제프 커리 골드만삭스 애널리스트는 “장기적이고 구조적인 상승장에 진입했다”며 “이런 강세장이 향후 10년간 가격을 지지할 것”이라고 진단했다.
원자재 슈퍼 사이클…앞으로 10년은 간다중에서
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Commodity Super Cycle이 무엇인지 궁금하기도 하고 새로운 슈퍼사이클의 시작이라고 하는 이유도 궁금해서 몇가지 찾아보았습니다.
먼저 Commodity Super Cycle에 대한 정의. 관련한 글들이 여럿있는데 BIS와 Bank Of Canada에서 2016년에 발표한 Commodity Price Supercycles: What are they and What lies ahead?을 정리한 Commodity Price Super-Cycle: What lies ahead?에서 가져온 정의입니다.
JP Morgan이 2021년을 Commodity Supercycle의 새로운 시작이라고 평가한 보고서는 여럿입니다. 그 중에서 2021 Commodity Outlook: REVing up a structural bull market입니다. 구글링을 하시면 이 보고서는 전문을 구할 수 있습니다. 대략 63쪽입니다.
As we believe that commodity markets are entering a structural bull market, we argue that worrying about this week’s oil or copper inventory report is far less important than understanding where we are in the broader super cycle. Over the past 10 years, global growth has had three, short-lived mini boom and bust cycles. However, it has never expanded at a fast pace for a considerable period. These mini cycles were all driven by policy stimuluses, specifically Chinese fiscal policy and US monetary policy. Every time policy support weakened, global growth slowed materially, as it did in 2010-2011, 2014-2015 and 2018-2019. Each slowdown forced the governments to add back stimulus, and led to a short-lived mini boom. Such short-term, mean-reverting cycles come in sharp contrast with the 2000s, which saw the biggest bull market in commodities since the 1970s. The difference between the 2000s and 2010s was that global growth in the 2000s was driven by long-term structural factors, such as a massive, savings-financed investment boom in China and a consumer-lending boom in the DM economies. Structural forces underpinning the 2000s commodities super cycle meant it remained uninterrupted by Chinese tightening in 2004, or US rate hikes in 2005, and was only derailed by a full-scale global crisis in 2008.
As we have emphasized in the past, the outlook for commodities prices and returns depends upon activity levels and not growth rates, as commodity market outperformance requires the level of demand to exceed the level of supply. In particular, if supply levels cannot reach demand levels, shortages persist, which keeps prices high and volatile even should growth slows (and weigh on the performance of financial anticipatory assets like equities).
직접 구할 수 없는 보고서지만 비슷한 논지를 주장한 글이 Kolanovic: A New Commodity Supercycle Has Begun입니다. 앞서 팬데믹이 2/4분기 이전에 끝날 수 있다는 보고서를 쓴 Marko Kolanovic의 보고서를 소개합니다. 관심이 가는 차트는 두개입니다.
Zerohedge의 글중에서 The Stage is Set for a Bull Market in Oil이 원유강세장을 예측하지만 S&P Global의 Oil caught up in early commodity supercycle fervor 도 Commodity Super Cycle을 지지하는 보고서입니다. 이 중에 2021년 원자재의 가격예측그래프가 직관적입니다.
앞서 Potential Driver 외에 재무적인 흐름도 Commodity Super Cycle에 영향을 미친다고 합니다. 같은 글중 일부입니다.
Marko then discuss some of the financial flows that he believes will impact commodity and related equity prices: we have excerpted his view on some of the key ones:
Inflation hedging: The past decade was marked by low growth and low inflation. Bonds, bond proxies and secular growth stocks were in a bull market, while commodities, value and cyclical stocks performed poorly. Kolanovic believes that the tide on yields and inflation is turning, which will pose “a major risk to multi-asset portfolios” and in light of the consensus view that commodities are the best way to hedge rising inflation, the JPM quant expects “these multi-asset portfolios to add commodity and commodity equity exposure to hedge inflation.”
Bond-equity correlation hedging: Claiming that “bond-equity correlation is a critical input into portfolio construction (selection of assets, weights, leverage)” the quant found that Bond-equity correlation shifted regimes when the last supercycle started in 1997 and when central bank actions started intervening in bond markets to backstop equity risk. Coincidentally, Kolanovic notes, “with the end of the commodity supercycle, short-term rates have dropped globally to zero, and the ability of CBs to reinforce the bond-equity relationship without driving inflation has diminished.” So as the world recovers from Covid on the back of a “monetary and fiscal engineered recovery”, JPMorgan expects volatility to decline and inflation to increase, “delivering a 1-2 punch to bond-equity correlation.” This means that energy equities “could present a good hedge for bond-equity correlation – they often deliver a yield (like bonds) but also hedge the inflation and bond-equity correlation risk.” Incidentally, Exxon still offers a 7% dividend yield despite oil prices being high enough to where the risk of the dividend being canceled is virtually gone.
Quants and Momentum Investing: In a market where algos and trend-followers have emerged as one of the dominant price-setting forces, it is hardly a surprise that the JPM quant focuses on their influence as the driver behind a commodity supercycle. Indeed, he writes that after “CTAs played significant role in the 2014 oil price downturn” more recently, “CTA funds have been adding Energy exposure. The reason is that 12-month momentum turned positive on Oil, and going forward signals will remain solidly positive.” And since vol-control funds are some of the dumbest money around and their actions can be anticipated well in advance, JPM notes that “a further decline in volatility will likely result in larger and more stable cross-asset quant allocations. A larger momentum impact may affect Energy equities, which is the only sector that still has a strongly negative momentum signal and is hence heavily shorted in the context of factor investing.” That, JPMorgan believes, will “change in mid-March, when the momentum signal for energy equities turns positive” which may be a hint to the redditors out there: if you want to squeeze the systematic shorts, do it where it hurts and buy some energy stocks to crush the CTAs. You have about a month to do so because JPM’s model momentum factor “will need to rebalance in March by closing ~20% of its allocation to Energy equity shorts, and adding ~2% to energy longs, for a ~22% net buying in Energy.”
이상의 의견이 월스트리트가 합의한 의견은 아니라고 하니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 기억했으면 하는 표현.
Commodities are the best inflation hedge
참고로 설 연휴동안 인상깊게 들었던 토론프로그램입니다. [KBS열린토론] 설 특집 – 코로나와 경제 2탄 자산시장 파티는 계속될까?입니다. 곽수종, 홍춘욱씨가 출연자인데 사회경제적인 시각까지 담았습니다.
