1.
글 제목은 미국의 어떤 회사가 쓴 보고서 제목입니다. 왜 보고서가 글 제목일까요?
얼마 전 뜬금없이 한국거래소가 한시적인 수수료 면제를 발표하였습니다.
잠시만 생각해보면 쉽게 이해할 수 있습니다. 페북에 올렸던 단상입니다.
이미 물건너간 ATS. 대체거래소의 효과중 하나가 수수료 인하였습니다. 증권회사들이 못한 일을 동학개미가 했네요. 동학개미가 서학개미로 진화하니까 위기를 느낀 한국거래소가 수수료 면제를 들고 나왔습니다. 이를 다르게 해석하면 3개월 면제해도 이미 남는 장사를 했다..
이런 뜻입니다.
모든 변화의 시작은 동학개미입니다. 국내 주식을 넘어서 해외 주식까지 투자를 하고 있습니다. 이와 관련하여 무척 재미있는 기사를 읽었습니다.
미국 자동차 대기업 제너럴모터스(GM)와의 협업 소식에 주가가 40% 넘게 올랐던 수소차 스타트업 니콜라(Nikola)가 사흘 만에 36% 급락했다. “이 정도 규모의 상장기업에서 이런 수준의 사기를 본 적이 없다”는 한 리서치회사의 리포트가 발단이 됐다. 10일(현지시각) 포렌식 금융분석 회사를 자처한 ‘힌덴버그 리서치(Hindenburg Research)’는 홈페이지에 올린 리포트에서 니콜라 설립자 트레버 밀턴이 사업에 대해 광범위한 거짓말을 했음을 입증하는 녹취, 문자메시지, 개인이메일, 사진 등을 확보했다고 주장했다.
제2의 테슬라도 당했나? 월가 흔드는 ‘숏셀러’중에서
기사가 다루고 있는 원문은 Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America입니다. 아래는 보고서중 요약입니다.
(NASDAQ:NKLA)
- Today, we reveal why we believe Nikola is an intricate fraud built on dozens of lies over the course of its Founder and Executive Chairman Trevor Milton’s career.
- We have gathered extensive evidence—including recorded phone calls, text messages, private emails and behind-the-scenes photographs—detailing dozens of false statements by Nikola Founder Trevor Milton. We have never seen this level of deception at a public company, especially of this size.
- Trevor has managed to parlay these false statements made over the course of a decade into a ~$20 billion public company. He has inked partnerships with some of the top auto companies in the world, all desperate to catch up to Tesla and to harness the EV wave.
- We examine how Nikola got its early start and show how Trevor misled partners into signing agreements by falsely claiming to have extensive proprietary technology.
- We reveal how, in the face of growing skepticism over the functionality of its truck, Nikola staged a video called “Nikola One in Motion” which showed the semi-truck cruising on a road at a high rate of speed. Our investigation of the site and text messages from a former employee reveal that the video was an elaborate ruse—Nikola had the truck towed to the top of a hill on a remote stretch of road and simply filmed it rolling down the hill.
- In October 2019, Nikola announced it would revolutionize the battery industry. This was to be done through a pending acquisition, but the deal fell through when Nikola realized (a) the technology was vaporware and (b) the President of the battery company had been indicted months earlier over allegations that he conned NASA by using his expense account to procure numerous prostitutes.
- Nikola has never walked back claims relating to its battery technology. Instead, Trevor continued to publicly hype the technology even after becoming aware of the above issues. The revolutionary battery technology never existed – now, Nikola plans to use GM’s battery technology instead.
- A spokesman for Volvo spin-off Powercell AB, a hydrogen fuel cell technology company that formerly partnered with Nikola, called Nikola’s battery and hydrogen fuel cell claims “hot air”.
- In addition to now using GM’s battery technology, Nikola seeks to use the automaker’s production and fuel cell capabilities. Nikola seems to be bringing nothing to the partnership but concept designs, their brand name and up to $700 million they will be paying GM for costs related to production.
- Inexpensive hydrogen is fundamental to the success of Nikola’s business model. Trevor has claimed in a presentation to hundreds of people and in multiple interviews to have succeeded at cutting the cost of hydrogen by ~81% compared to peers and to already be producing hydrogen. Nikola has not produced hydrogen at this price or at any price as he later admitted when pressed by media.
- Trevor has appointed his brother, Travis, as “Director of Hydrogen Production/Infrastructure” to oversee this critical part of the business. Travis’s prior experience looks to have largely consisted of pouring concrete driveways and doing subcontractor work on home renovations in Hawaii.
- Claims of owning energy producing assets is not new for Nikola. Trevor claimed that Nikola’s headquarters has 3.5 megawatts of solar panels on its roof producing energy. Aerial photos of the roof and later media reports show that the supposed panels don’t exist.
- At one point Nikola claimed to own its own natural gas wells. There is no evidence in company filings to support this. The claims were eventually quietly removed from Nikola’s website.
- Trevor claims Nikola designs all key components in house, but they appear to simply be buying or licensing them from third-parties. One example: we found that Nikola actually buys inverters from a company called Cascadia. In a video showing off its “in-house” inverters, Nikola concealed the Cascadia label with a piece of masking tape.
- In a July 2020 podcast, Trevor said of Nikola’s “Tre” truck: “We have five of them coming off the assembly line right now in Ulm Germany.” A spokesperson for Bosch, the manufacturing partner building the trucks, confirmed this month that they haven’t made any trucks yet.
- The company’s Nikola One “reveal” was a total farce. We corroborate Bloomberg’s earlier work debunking Trevor’s claims regarding its semi-truck that “this thing fully functions and works…this is a real truck” and provide new evidence.
- We present behind-the-scenes photos showing that Nikola had an electricity cable snaked up from underneath the stage into the truck in order to falsely claim the Nikola One’s electrical systems fully functioned.
- We learned through emails and interviews with former partners that Trevor had an artist stencil “H2” and “Zero Emission Hydrogen Electric” on the side of the Nikola One despite it having no hydrogen capabilities whatsoever; it was built with natural gas components.
- We also present evidence that subsequent “reveals” were fictitious. In 2019, Nikola revealed a “next generation” version of its off-road vehicle. We learned that it was scrapped within weeks of the unveiling due to manufacturing challenges. The redesign work was then quietly outsourced.
- Nikola’s much-touted multi-billion dollar order book is filled with fluff. U.S. Xpress reportedly accounts for a third of its reservations, representing ~$3.5 billion in orders. U.S. Xpress had only $1.3 million in cash on hand last quarter.
- Nikola’s key partners and backers have been cashing out aggressively. Worthington, Bosch and ValueAct have all sold shares. Worthington sold $237 million shares over a 2-day span in July and another $250 million in August. We think they know exactly what type of company Nikola is, and we expect that as Nikola’s GM “partnership” boosts the stock price, key holders will continue to exit.
- We think Trevor Milton, through dozens of outright lies, was able to form partnerships with some of the largest legacy auto companies in the world in their desperation to catch up to Tesla’s EV leadership status.
- Trevor has ensured he is not going down with the ship. He cashed out $70 million around the IPO and amended his share lock-up from 1-year to 180 days. If he is fired, his equity awards immediately vest and he is entitled to collect $20 million over two years. Milton has laid the groundwork to extract hundreds of millions from Nikola years before ever delivering on his promises.
- Every now and then a story comes around that exposes how little the “experts” really know. Theranos inked partnerships with Walgreens, Safeway, and Cleveland Clinic and staffed its board with luminaries. We think Nikola’s partners did not do their homework.
2.
기사의 핵심은 니콜라 분석이 아니라 리서치회사의 본업입니다.
이 회사가 ‘리서치 회사’를 표방하고 있지만 전문적인 숏셀러(Shortseller)라는 점에서 주가 하락을 목적으로 매도 보고서를 냈을 가능성도 제기된다. 숏셀러란 주식 매도로 돈을 버는 투자자들을 말한다. 주식 값이 떨어질 것을 예상하고 미리 브로커로부터 주식을 끌어다가 비싼 값에 판 뒤 이후 주가가 큰폭으로 내리면 같은 주식을 갚는 방법으로 수익을 낸다. 블룸버그에 따르면 힌덴버그 리서치는 올해 가장 활발하게 활동한 숏셀러다. 상반기에 15건의 종목에 ‘매도’ 의견을 냈다. 홍콩에 상장된 중국 기업 ‘중국 메탈 자원(China Metal Resources)’이 대표적인 사례다. 이 회사의 회계 관행이 의심스러우며 회사 측이 주가 조작에 관여했다고 주장한 이후 주가가 84% 하락했다.
▲미국 애니메이션 방송채널인 지니어스 브랜드(Genius Brand) ▲캐나다 제약회사 파마씨엘로(Pharmacielo) ▲중국 전기자동차(EV) 및 핀테크 기업인 아이디어노믹스(Ideanomics) ▲미국 비즈니스 클라우드 서비스 제공사 J2글로벌 ▲미국 제약사 쏘렌토 테라퓨틱스(Sorrento Therapeutics) 등도 타깃이 돼 주가가 급락했다.
힌덴버그 리서치가 기업에 매도 의견을 내기 시작한 건 2017년부터이지만, 올 들어 리포트 작성 수가 급격히 늘었다. 로빈후드 같은 무료 주식거래 앱이 인기를 끌며 개인 투자자들이 늘어나자 이들이 관심을 갖는 종목을 중심으로 확인되지 않은 주장이 담긴 매도 의견을 냈다. 이른바 역(逆) 로빈후드 투자법이다.
Yahoo의 기사를 보면 미국내 Short Seller, 보통 사용하는 표현으로 하면 공매도세력들이 높은 수익률을 올리고 있다고 합니다.어떤 기업들일까요? Most Prolific Short Sellers Amid Covid And The Rise Of Robinhood Traders에 나온 도표입니다. Activist Short Selling in H1-2020도 자세한 정보가 있습니다.
해외주식도 공부해야 합니다.(^^)
