1.
ZeroHedge. 세상이 유튜브와 같은 동영상으로 바뀌어도 여전히 문자로 소식과 의견을 전하는 아주 오랜 곳입니다. 2009년부터 시작한 블로그인데 워낙 유명하니까 2014년 연합뉴스에서도 소개한 곳입니다. 여전히 수많은 글이 올라오고 있고 저도 가끔씩 살펴보는 곳입니다.
한 해를 마감할 때 ZeroHedge는 재미있는 글을 올립니다. 아래와 같은 기획인데 기억으로는 매년 했던 것으로 기억합니다.
2020 Greatest Hits: The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year And A Look Ahead
The Year In Review: 2020 In 20 Visualizations
2020년 가장 많은 관심을 받았던 주제는 아래라고 합니다.
Finally, in the top #1 spot, and cementing 2020’s status as the year of covid, was an article from March that tried to take on the mass hysteria spread by everyone from (conflicted) politicians to (conflicted) mainsteadm media to (conflicted) pharma companies, all of which had a vested interest in creating the biggest ever crisis possible. With 1.7 million page views, in “COVID-19 – Evidence Over Hysteria” we laid out one take why the widespread panic resulting from covid may be ultimately self-defeating especially when juxtaposed side by the side with the far greater (and far wider reaching) economic damage sparked by lockdowns. Alas, to this day, the hysteria dominates confirming the old saying to let no crisis go to waste, especially when the crisis in question is the biggest one in generations and allows the establishment to rollout socially and economically transformational changes that would never be possible without the scapegoat that is covid.
개인적으로 관심이 가는 주제는 로빈후드인데 역시나 2020년 특징은 The Rise Of The Robinhood Trader 입니다.
Free trading app Robinhood has added more than three million retail accounts in 2020, and now has over 13 million. The median age of its retail customer is 31. The Covid-19 lockdowns and the plunge in markets in March persuaded millions of new investors to open accounts. Some of the action appears to be from people who would otherwise be gambling or betting on sports—both of which were shut down.
The Under-40 Set Discovers Day Trading중에서
개인적으로 2020년을 정리한 글중 좋았던 글은 로빈후드 트레이더를 중심으로 한 개미투자자들을 분석한 Technically Speaking: Charting 2020 – A Year Of Speculative Mania입니다. 위 글을 2020년에 쓰여진 여러 편의 글을 묶음으로 보여줍니다.
- Just like we saw in 1999 and 2008, “day trading” has had a resurgence from “message boards” on AOL to live blogs and video feeds on social media.
- These “newbie” retail investors are not trading based on fundamentals, earnings, estimates, products or market values, but rather talking up stocks driven by pure momentum.
- The problem with margin is that when you are wrong, you can lose more than 100% of your investment.
그중에서 2020년 6월에 쓴 Is It 1999 Or 2007? Retail Investors Flood The Market을 보면 로빈후드로 대표하는 개인투자자의 특징을 ‘투기적(Speculative)’라고 한 근거를 자세히 다룹니다.
그리고 눈먼 돈 지수(Dumb Money Confidence)를 인용하면서 투기적인 투자가 매니아수준이라고 진단하네요.
‘Cheap money often fuels speculative fervor, and this time has been helped by bored work-from-homers finding that day trading is a way to gamble their stimulus checks.’ https://t.co/9OKxjPEyO8 pic.twitter.com/ubfWJvcb07
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 4, 2021
2.
또다른 자료는 골드만삭스의 보고서를 도표를 중심으로 분석한 Goldman’s Top Charts Of 2020입니다.
Here are some of Goldman’s key observations on the global economy:
- The global economy came to a sudden pandemic stop with a peak hit to global GDP in mid-April of 20% that varied significantly in magnitude across economies.
- Unprecedented policy easing and adaptation drove the rapid but partial global recovery in the second half of 2020. Fiscal easing led to relatively stable real disposable income in most DMs and an actual surge in the US despite a historic collapse in GDP. Monetary easing stabilized financial markets and brought the most accommodative financial conditions on record. Targeted policies such as mask wearing mandates and other consumer and business adaptations including surges in e-commerce and work from home lowered the relative impact on economic activity from successive virus waves.
- Relatively low bankruptcies, increased business formations, limited increases in unemployment in Europe and Japan, and sharp declines in unemployment in North America all point to surprisingly limited long-term damage to the supply side of the economy.
- We expect the virus situation to improve sharply in 2021, driven by warmer weather in the Northern hemisphere, rising immunity from natural infections and—most importantly—a successful global vaccination campaign. Vaccine supply is well below demand at present, but it should become plentiful in DMs in the next several months and in EMs later in the year. The remaining issues are mostly logistical, but the speed of the rollout in Israel in recent weeks suggests that they are surmountable.
- Slowing virus spread should boost activity in virus-sensitive sectors that account for the bulk of the output gap and the 2020 decline in inflation and drive our 2021 above-consensus global growth forecast of +6.4%
위 글을 보면 여럿 도표가 나오는데 2021년을 중심으로 보면 마지막 도표에 눈이 갈 듯 합니다. 인플레이션에 대한 강조입니다.
이와 같은 시각은 모건 스탠리도 가집니다.
Morgan Stanley Warns “Market Ripe For A Drawdown” As “Risk/Reward Has Deteriorated Materially”
Stocks Are “Overbought And Frothy” Warns Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analyst
한국경제신문도 관련한 기사를 올렸네요.
월가에서는 비트코인과 유동성이 떠받친 주식시장에 대한 거품론도 제기되고 있다. 미국 주식시장의 비관론자로 통하는 데이비드 로젠버그 로젠버그리서치 대표는 “여러 지표를 기준으로 삼아도 현재 주식시장이 20~30%는 고평가됐다”며 “비트코인도 단기적인 급등세는 매우 이례적이며 시장 최대 거품”이라고 지적했다. 다만 그는 “금리가 현 수준에 머물고 경제활동이 극적으로 후퇴하지 않는 한 거품이 이른 시일 내에 터지지는 않을 것”이라며 “거품 속에 투자하고 있다는 점은 알아야 한다”고 말했다. 로젠버그 대표는 이런 상황에서 투자할 만한 안전자산으로 금을 꼽았다.
“올해 최대 인플레 온다” “주식·비트코인 거품”…월가의 경고중에서
앞서 Realinvestmentadvice에 올라온 글 – ZeroHedge가 소개한 글 -을 쓴 Lance Roberts가 30년동안 강조한 내용을 결론으로 인용합니다.
- Investing is not a competition. There are no prizes for winning but there are severe penalties for losing.
- Emotions have no place in investing.You are generally better off doing the opposite of what you “feel” you should be doing.
- The ONLY investments that you can “buy and hold” are those that provide an income stream with a return of principal function.
- Market valuations (except at extremes) are very poor market timing devices.
- Fundamentals and Economics drive long-term investment decisions – “Greed and Fear” drive short-term trading. Knowing what type of investor you are determines the basis of your strategy.
- “Market timing” is impossible– managing exposure to risk is both logical and possible.
- Investment is about discipline and patience. Lacking either one can be destructive to your investment goals.
- There is no value in daily media commentary– turn off the television and save yourself the mental capital.
- Investing is no different than gambling– both are “guesses” about future outcomes based on probabilities. The winner is the one who knows when to “fold” and when to go “all in”.
- No investment strategy works all the time. The trick is knowing the difference between a bad investment strategy and one that is temporarily out of favor.
