1.
제목은 Larry Tabb이라고 했지만 제가 자주 방문하는 곳들인 Wallstreet & Technology와 Low-latency.com에 올라온 2012년 자본시장 IT전망까지를 포함합니다. 먼저 유명한 미국 컨설턴트인 Larry Tabb이 2012년을 전망하는 글을 소개합니다. 출처는 아래입니다만 가입을 하셔야 합니다.
Twenty Predictions for 2012 & Beyond
세계 및 미국의 경제와 관련된 예측을 포함하여 다양한 분야를 다루고 있습니다. 주제들입니다.
1)Europe won’t go off a cliff
2)Obama will win the election
3)Volatility will calm down and the U.S. market will rally
4) The U.S. will outperform all major geographies
5)While U.S. will do better, large caps will outperform smaller caps
6) The Securities and Exchange Commission will begin to think about the issue of a broken
7) The SEC/Congress will pass legislation opening up the market for private companies.
금융감독과 관련한 아주 중요한 Dodd-Frank법을 둘러싼 예측입니다. 바젤III의 중요성을 강조합니다. 한국 금융위원회의 보고를 보더라도 바젤III를 강조하고 있습니다. 다른 점은 미국이 도드-프랭크법이라면 한국은 자본시장법으로 시스템 변화를 하려는 것입니다. Larry Tabb은 W&T에 기고한 글에서 좀더 자세히 규제변화를 다루고 있습니다.
Larry Tabb’s 2012 Financial Markets Forecast: Antacid ? And Plenty of It
10)Dodd-Frank delayed until 2013 and maybe 2014.
11)While DF is delayed ? many of the swaps changes will become market practices.
12)Volcker gets watered down.
13)The real teeth is in Basel III.
14)Treasuries become really hot… interest rates on FCM accounts will go negative.
15)FX moves toward formal markets and custody becomes more expensive.
16) Banks move toward becoming factories.
17)Market making and prop trading will move away from the banks.
한국 금융위원회의 사업계획은 아래와 같이 바젤III를 담고 있습니다.
(자본적정성) 적정한 자본여력이 확보될 수 있도록 금융회사의 자본적정성 기준을 강화
ㅇ 은행은 바젤Ⅲ 자본규제(‘13년부터 단계적 도입) 및 유동성 규제(’15년 도입) 시행에 대비
* 은행별 자본적정성 유지계획을 수립?점검하고 기본자본으로 인정되는 조건부자본(contingent capital)제도 도입을 추진
2.
이제 자본시장 IT와 관련된 부분입니다. Latency 경쟁은 이어지지만 핵심은 아니라고 합니다. 아마도 2011년까지 이어진 레이턴시투자가 정점에 다다랐고 그 결과 투자로 얻을 수 있는 이익이 한계에 도달했기때문이라는 생각입니다.
8) Latency will become less of a hot topic ? while still being important.
First will always be first and will get the gold ring but the cost of being first will increase, making it only achievable for the top five or 10 players. All but these five or 10 will invest in speed to stay relevant but not to be at the cutting edge.
Larry Tabb이 레이턴시보다는 클라우드와 빅데이타를 강조합니다. 위험관리 등으로 인하여 실시간 빅데이타분석이 중요한 이슈로 등장할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 좀 다른 관점이지만 국내 금융IT행사에서 ‘클라우드와 빅데이타’를 강조하는 것과 맥을 같이 합니다.
9)Smarter and Dirtier.
Big data will be increasingly important as fewer folks compete to be the fastest. Firms will invest in analytics to find opportunities that no one else sees. They will also invest in analyzing large quantities of data faster to be able to not only find needles in haystacks but guppies in the ocean.19) ? Shared infrastructure will be increasingly important:
Hosting facilities such as NYSE’s Mawah and Basildon facilities, Thomson Reuters’ Elektron, BT’s Radianz, IPC’s Connexus, Savvis and others will become the industry’s processing, semi-private cloud and hosting facilities. This will happen gradually over time and not within the next year or two.20) ? Big Data will be the next big thing.
With the increasing importance of regulation, risk management becomes more data intensive. In addition the increase in weekly strikes and penny pricing, options data will become increasingly more voluminous and difficult to manage. The analysis of unstructured data and the growth of real-time data across markets to the “real world” will also mean that companies will increasingly need to manage a greater set of more complex data. This will drive storage, CEP, analytics, and the growth in use of sentiment engines.18) ? Costs will come under pressure.
Cost pressure at the banks will not be turned around in the next year or two. As banks migrate away from trading to being a factory, they will need to streamline infrastructure. Traditional bespoke development will be curtailed, proprietary data centers will be eliminated and firms will gradually migrate toward a hosted/ASP model for a larger percentage of their IT needs. Firms will only develop what provides them a competitive advantage and outsource/ASP the rest.
3.
다음으로 Securities Technology Monitor에서 선정한 2012년 전망입니다.
우선 거래소와 합병과 관련된 전망입니다. 9번으로 소개한 Xetra가 시장을 점령할 것이라는 예측이 눈에 들어옵니다. Exture+의 미래가 걱정스럽습니다.
1. Liffe Gets Spun Out
To placate European regulators, Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext agree to sell off the Liffe derivatives business in order to get their merger approved. Deadline for spinout of London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange is two years hence.2. Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Complete Merger
With European approval in hand, DB-NYSE become combined company on April 1.7. Nasdaq, London Exchange Announce Plan to Merge
To keep pace with Deutsche Boerse, NYSE Euronext and BATS Chi-X Europe, Nasdaq OMX Group and London Stock Exchange Group announce plan to merge. Both sides say market conditions have changed radically since 2005, when LSE rejected merger with Nasdaq.8. Basildon Data Center Shuts Down
Deutsche Boerse NYSE Group carries out plan to consolidate data centers. Left out in cold is NYSE’s data center in Basildon, England, erected two years ago for $250 million. Still operating is mirror facility in Mahwah, N.J., shown here, which houses operations of all NYSE exchanges.9. Xetra Wins Out
Deutsche Boerse NYSE Group says it will use the trading system that underlies the Xetra cash market in German for operations of all its exchanges. The changes are to be phased in over five years. Aim is to create a single global trading technology that operates over the Secure Financial Transaction Infrastructure network established by NYSE Technologies.
다음으로 거래소 및 감독기관들이 시장의 안정성을 위해 시행할 조치들에 대한 전망입니다.
3. Bakeoff Begins on Audit Trail
SEC starts formal process of creating a real-time system for tracking stock market activity. Directs self-regulatory organizations to conduct review of best available options for creating (and funding) the system. Choice to be made by year’s end.4. ‘Infinite Loop’ Shuts Down Exchange
Major national exchange stops trading when algorithm of one of its members goes into an ‘infinite loop’ and overloads operations with excess orders.5. Cancels Get Canceled
SEC and self-regulatory organizations put ceiling on number of cancellations a single trading entity can place in a single second. Aim is to reduce market volatility and increase liquidity.6. One Second Delay
SEC begins examination of system that delays orders up to one second each, to insure that adequate pre-trade risk controls are executed, reduce competition on microsecond advantages in speed and increase reliance on best prices to win orders.
마지막으로 Latency경쟁과 관련된 전망입니다.
10. Five-Microsecond Max
Technology suppliers provide pretrade risk controls, order and execution management systems that carry out all phases of analysis and instruction in five millionths of a second.11. Wireless Replaces Wired
Wireless communications infractructure, such as microwave and millimeter wave technology, begin to replace cables on long-haul networks. Trading instructions carried in straight line, without delays, at speed of light. No burrowing through mountains required.12. Dodd-Frank Reform Incomplete
CFTC and SEC push off implementation of final rules for implementing provisions of Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act until first quarter 2013. At issue: Defining what is a swap that must be traded in a swap execution facility.
이중 11번 Wireless와 관련된 기술을 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 대략 10월부터 무선기술에 대한 언급이 늘어나기 시작하더군요.
?One of the hottest trends at the moment is for traders to explore the possibility of investing in wireless solutions which promise a robust alternative to fibre, as well as reduced costs and ultra-low latency. A recent report by High Frequency Traders looked at the rise of wireless trading technology and its place in the industry’s future.
Historically, HFT firms seeking the fastest-possible connections between markets have turned straight to fibre-optic networks, which has largely been successful. But the very nature of today’s intensely competitive markets means innovative companies are constantly in pursuit of even faster times, which could have a major impact on a HFT company’s bottom line.
Much of the industry’s focus is currently trained on wireless, which forward-thinking traders hope will give them the edge in years to come. HFT firms across Europe and in the US are battling to secure licensed radio frequencies which harbour the potential to reduce the time needed for data transfer between certain financial centres by up to 40 per cent.
Is the future of High-Frequency Trading wireless?중에서
또다른 방향은 IDC내부에서 Wireless기술을 적용하는 것입니다.
Forget Ethernet, researchers want data centers to go wireless
다음은 Lowlatency.com이 예측하는 2012년입니다. 그동안 블로그에서 소개했던 내용들이 많이 포함되어 있습니다.
1.Low latency covers a broad spectrum. Reducing milliseconds is for some just as important as pushing down nanoseconds for others. More people – maybe even the marketing departments of some big vendors – will understand this in 2012.
2.Use of managed services – infrastructure, data, connectivity – will accelerate in 2012, especially for those not at the cutting edge of latency. But convincing the big banks to go this route will be tough.
3.Hardware acceleration – FPGAs and Network Processors – will become pretty common in 2012. The skills and tools are becoming more plentiful, and the momentum is there. Not even Intel’s Sandy Bridge can stop it.
4.Low latency in Latin America will get even hotter! Brazil is old hat now. Mexico is surging, as is Chile, Colombia … and I think I need some time in Panama soon!
5.Low latency will meet Big Data – to drive down compute latency for complex trading models and risk management. And we’ll be launching a sister community for Big Data for Finance – stay tuned!
4.
마지막으로 Wallstree & Technology의 전망입니다.
10 Challenges That Will Shape Wall Street in 2012
W&T는 10개의 기술 범주들을 소개하고 있습니다. Liquidity Centers, Risk Tools, The Cloud, Big Data, OTC Derivatives Clearing, Data Security, Regulation, Open Source Technology, New IT Skills, Data Visualization등입니다.
이중에서 오픈소스를 보면 이렇게 정리합니다.
Where the Industry Is Now: Banks are funding a new generation of start-ups using open source technologies. Interdealer-broker ICAP launched Euclid Opportunities in March to offer seed funding and support for early stage companies providing innovative technologies in the areas of post-trade risk management, data and other financial market applications. “We are seeking smart people who we think can solve some of the emerging problems in the post-reform workflow,” says Steve Gibson, managing director of Euclid Opportunities, who explains that the idea is to start fresh with new, open technologies. “If you could start again, and use some of the next-generation approaches, including the open tools and technologies that are maturing, you could build scalable, robust solutions and distribute the value they offer at a different [i.e., lower] price point than the financial software [vendors].”
2011년 한국 자본시장IT를 어떻게 전망하시나요?
누구나 예측가능한 부분은 Low Latency와 관련된 기술이 각광을 받을 것이란 점입니다. 덧붙여 자본시장법 개정안이 통과되느냐에 따라 달라지겠지만 실시간위험관리, CCP와 관련된 기술은 중요하지 않을까 합니다. 물론 클라우드, 빅데이타 및 데이타 시각화등은 기본입니다.
